The Demise of the Premier League?
Has the English top tier finally run its course as the best division in the World?
Wednesday, May 21st 2008. A day Chelsea Football Club and its supporters may wish to forget, but one, ultimately, that both Manchester United and English football would certainly want to savour. For the first time since the incarnation of the European Cup over 50 years previously, two sides from the English top tier were competing in its final. This was certainly the pinnacle of the country’s club football, a stand out sporting triumph for a nation whose international side were failing spectacularly. And yet, in the four years that have followed that terrific night for English football, the gleam has begun to fade from the sparkling advertisement for the game that was the Premier League.
Fast forward just 45 months from that night in Moscow and you’ll find yourself at the 2012 Carling Cup final, contested by Cardiff City of the Championship and Liverpool, of course belonging to the Premier League. To all intents and purposes, the game should have been won with relative ease by the Reds, who, after 90 minutes of comfortable football, walk off into the sunset, cup in hand, leaving Cardiff merciful on the ground beside them. As was proven to be the case, cup, and indeed league football, doesn’t always quite work out like that, but it has in the last few years. A look at the League Cup final results since 2006 will see three victories for Manchester United over Wigan, Spurs and Villa respectively, a win for Chelsea over Arsenal and a narrow defeat for Chelsea again, against Spurs, as you’d expect. Last year saw a shock triumph for Birmingham over Arsenal before Cardiff took Liverpool all the way to penalties this season. Is it possible that a very different pattern is being sewn? FA Cup results this year are an early indicator that cup football is becoming as hard to predict as it was before Murdoch’s money had any say in the location of the Premier League trophy. This suggests a vast clumping in the ability of the country’s clubs – from the upper echelons of the Championship all the way to sides competing for European qualification.
It is, however, in European competition, more specifically the Champions League, where English clubs have been so publically embarrassed, not just this year, but over the last three. From the failure of any of the top tier’s clubs to reach the Semi-finals in 2010, to the complete and utter domination of Manchester United, at Wembley, by Barcelona in 2011, to the group stage elimination of the Premier League’s two best equipped clubs this season, probably preceding the exit of both Arsenal and Chelsea to AC Milan and Napoli respectively, there has certainly been an ebb in quality. In fact, while the English game may well be waning, the Italian one could be seeing a resurgence.
However, the inadequate displays from the two London clubs in the Round of 16 can be reasonably explained by the sides’ league form. The subpar performances from both teams may be unusual, but they have been repeated this season by many established Premier League clubs, with Aston Villa, Everton, Bolton and Blackburn suffering badly from a bout of relegation worthy results. This has allowed the likes of Swansea, Norwich and, most noticeably, Newcastle, to climb the table in an effortless fashion. It has even meant that renowned yo-yo club West Brom have been able to establish themselves in a division they stood no hope in before. Put simply, the Premier League is easier. Clubs who may have found survival in such a league a confounding task in seasons gone by are finding the challenge more straightforward than ever before. For the first time in 20 years the top end of the Championship has connected with the very bottom of the first division, and it will lead to the departure of many established clubs as the league’s strength in depth is seriously called into question. And, while the top sides have so far cut themselves adrift, Newcastle and Spurs are showing that Champions League places are much easier to come by than they were four years ago. If someone had told you in 2008 that in 2012 the top four spots in the league will go to Manchester City, United, Tottenham and Newcastle you’d have been mad to believe them. Remarkably, it is now a distinct possibility. The monopoly of the big four has finally been broken, but the league’s mid-table clubs are arguably weaker than ever. Both these arguments are good when it comes to excitement, neither are when it comes to quality.
Possibly the most important factor when it comes to the future condition of the Premier League, however, is the court victory of a Portsmouth landlady against Sky TV last week. The implications of the decision, which allow the landlady to screen foreign pictures of Premier League matches in her pub aren’t entirely comprehendible just yet, but it could seriously undermine the value of any future television rights for the division. As it stands, the league, as has been argued, is in a rut, one it shall escape fairly soon, one would imagine. This court case, however, would surely set each of the division’s 20 clubs back millions and millions of pounds, endangering the league’s position in Europe and the member club’s positions financially. Intense intrigue shall certainly encompass both the depth and breadth of the consequences of this decision. It could, after all, mean the end of the Premier League as we know it. Alternatively, Saturday, May 25th 2013 may just mark the rejuvenation of the English game, as Wembley Stadium celebrates the return of an all-English final just 5 years after the last.
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